U152 News/Updates

[Mitchell-Atkins]

Nothing specific to share; just reviving this popular AG U152 News/Updates thread here.


Some useless U152 trivia:  If one follows the most numerous U152 subclade down from each successive branch on the FTDNA haplotree, you presently end up here

U152>L2>Z49>Z142>Z51>L562>Z57>Z148>Z149>Z52>BY33643>CTS11232>BY43145>BY33695>BY71382>BY186710 (1650 AD)

Obviously this is biased by the US centric testing at FTDNA.  Wonder how long this line will stay in first.

[ChrisR]

Interesting concept. By subtracting clusters of results in the last 500-1000 years maybe a less biased result is possible.

[Mitchell-Atkins]

Interesting concept. By subtracting clusters of results in the last 500-1000 years maybe a less biased result is possible.

I did this again, removing the Brit/Ir-ish, unknown, and non European results.

It looks the same from U152>L2>Z49>Z142>Z51>L562>Z57>Z148>Z149>Z52.

Then CTS278 barely beats BY33643 (11 to 10)

U152>L2>Z49>Z142>Z51>L562>Z57>Z148>Z149>Z52>CTS278 >BY33646>FT67248>FTB64780>FTB62593

[Mitchell-Atkins]

One division that seems to appear at the U152>L2>Z49>Z142 subclade level is Z142>Z51 vs Z142>Z12222 as it relates to Germany and France.

Z51 is Germany 33, France 16.
Z12222 is Germany 13, France 41.

Italy is roughly the same at 5 vs 4 for Z51 and Z12222 respectively

But much more Z51 in Switzerland than Z12222 (5 vs 1) and Netherlands is 2 for Z12222 and 1 for Z51.

[Mitchell-Atkins]

As of today:  U152 percentages by country/region in the FTDNA database with at least 90 samples. 

I was going to cut it off at 100, but dropped it down to 90 total samples in the FTDNA database so I could include Isle of Man and Moldova.

[AimSmall]

Missing graphic?

[Mitchell-Atkins]

Some observations:

Despite dropping dramatically after the Bell Beaker peak in ancient dna samples, Czech Republic is in the top 6 European countries for U152, higher than US, England, Canada, and Austria (yes I know US and Canada aren't European countries ).

Since it's next to #1 Switzerland, I would have thought there would be more U152 in Austria (5.38%) than Czech Rep (5.57%). Poland (2.48%) is less than half of Czech Rep.

Maybe it just a testing bias (lots of U152 family members), but it's interesting that U152 is substantially higher in Australia and South Africa, than in the US, England, and Canada. Although it didn't make the cut with only 39 samples, New Zealand currently has 1 U152 sample (2.56%).

Serbia has a relatively high percentage of U152...higher than Hungary, the Netherlands, Wales, Scotland, Ireland. Again maybe it's just a testing bias.

Belgium as over 2x as much U152 than the Netherlands (8.21 vs 3.94%). No surprise really, but thought I would highlight it.

The US, Canada, and England have very similar percentages of U152 (5.50 to 5.56%)

Amongst the Brit/Ir-ish Isles the rank order is what you would expect if the most common route to Ireland was England>Scotland>Northern Ireland. Other options include England>Wales>Ireland,, Cornwall>Ireland, or possibly Brittany>Ireland

1. England 5.50%
2. Cornwall 4.72%
3. United Kingdom 4.40%
4. Wales 3.33%
5. Scotland 2.65%
6. N. Ireland 2.47%
7. Ireland 2.36%
8. Isle of Man 1.09%

Western Europe: Note Luxembourg would have been 2nd at 8 of 62 samples (12.9%)
1. Switzerland 15.74%
2. France 12.72%
3. Italy 10.81%
4. Italy (Sardinia) 10.56%
5. Belgium 8.21%
6. Germany 6.29%
7. Netherlands 3.94%
8. Spain 2.80%
9. Portugal 2.45%

Alps to North Sea/Rhine River Valley, shows a generally declining gradient
South to North
Switzerland 15.74%
Alsace 12.05% (From Eupedia/FTDNA project data)
Luxembourg 12.9%
Belgium 8.21%
Netherlands 3.94%

Nordic/Scandinavian/ Countries
1. Denmark 2.48%
2. Sweden 1.82%
3. Norway 1.26%
4. Finland 0.67%
5. Iceland 0.0%

Central Europe/Balkans
1. Czech Rep 5.57%
2. Austria 5.38%
3. Serbia 5.02%
4. Hungary 3.99%
5. Slovenia 3.43%
6. Romania 2.88%
7. Poland 2.48%
8. Slovakia 2.0%
9. Montenegro 1.96%
10. Greece 1.9%
11. Croatia 1.67%
12. Bulgaria 1.35%
13. Bosnia 0.95%
14. Albania 0.0%
15. Macedonia 0.0%

North Africa
1. Tunisia 1.17%
2. Algeria 0.84%
3. Morocco 0.52%
4. Egypt 0.23%
5. Libya 0.0%

Eastern Med/Levant
1. Lebanon 2.42%
2. Israel 1.02%
3. Palestinian Territory 0.27%
4. Syria 0.17%
5. Turkey 0.06%

Former USSR
1. Latvia 2.5%
2. Moldova 2.08%
3. Belarus 1.77%
4. Lithuania 1.72%
5. Estonia 1.7%
6. Ukraine 0.98%
7. Russia 0.68%
8. Azerbaijan 0.44%
9. Kazakhstan 0.18%
10. Armenia 0.14%
11. Chechnya 0.11%
12. Kabardino-Balkaria 0.0%
12. Bashkortostan 0.0%
12. Georgia 0.0%
12. Kyrgyzstan 0.0%
12. Uzbekistan 0.0%

Iberia/Caribbean/Latin America
1. Puerto Rico 6.42%
2. Peru 3.33%
3. Mexico 3.06%
4. Spain 2.80%
5. Brazil 2.54%
6. Portugal 2.45%
7. Colombia 1.80%
8. Barbados 1.08%

[RBHeadge]

Since it's next to #1 Switzerland, I would have thought there would be more U152 in Austria (5.38%) than Czech Rep (5.57%).  Poland  (2.48%) is less than half of Czech Rep.

...

Serbia has a relatively high percentage of U152...higher than Hungary, the Netherlands, Wales, Scotland, Ireland.  Again maybe it's just a testing bias.

It's probably testing bias for Switzerland and Austria. Given the FTDNA customer-base its probably a lot of kits from the Central Plateau and Upper/Lower Austria respectively. I'd expect much more U152 in the alpine regions of Austria than in the river basins.

With or without bias, Austria and Czechia being so close is a real surprise. I'm not aware of a testing bias for Czechia kits. I wonder when it "arrived" in Czechia? BA or middle ages?

Serbia, check the surnames. There might just be an accidental oversample of Danubian Swabians or Banat Swabians? Sample size is small enough that one or two families could skew the numbers. 

I have no decent idea why Australia and South Africa would be so much higher than US and Canada. Best I can think of is small N, and a for a minimal number of people that the reason to test is to figure out where they are from.

[Mitchell-Atkins]

U152 comparison to DF27 and L21

Brit/Ir-ish Isles
England: U152=5.50%, DF27=7.81%, L21=13.99%
Cornwall: U152=4.72%, 14.17%, L21=35.43%
UK: U152=4.40%, DF27=6.52%, L21=19.30%
Wales: U152=3.33%, DF27=6.02%, L21=35.95%
Scotland: U152=2.65%, DF27=5.69%, L21=39.76%
N. Ireland:  U152=2.47%, DF27=5.92%, L21=46.58%
Ireland: U152=2.36%, DF27=4.92%, L21=58.16%
Isle of Man: U152=1.09%, DF27=4.35%, L21=23.91% (must be the Vikings keeping P312 low here)

Except for England, there is substantially more DF27 than U152 in every region...usually around 2x more.  DF27 has strong showing in Cornwall.  L21 always comes out first, peaking in Ireland and lowest in England; and except for Isle of Man, has an inverse correlation to U152 (U152's highest % is L21's lowest, L21's highest % is U152's lowest)


Alps to North Sea/Rhine River Valley:
Switzerland U152=15.74%, DF27=6.58%,  L21=2.16% 
Luxembourg U152=12.90%, DF27=8.06%, L21=1.61%
Belgium  U152=8.21%, DF27=9.5%, L21=4.54%
Netherlands  U152=3.94%,  DF27=4.8%, L21= 3.80%

Going South to North, DF27 and L21 peak in Belgium, but the difference between Belgium and the Netherlands is more noticeable in U152 & DF27 than in L21.  This could support alanarchae's idea that DF27 was centered more in the Meuse River area early on.

Nordic/Scandinavian/ Countries
Denmark:  U152=2.48%, DF27=3.42%, L21=3.31%
Sweden:  U152= 1.82%,  DF27=2.33%, L21=2.71%
Norway: U152= 1.26%,  DF27=1.82%, L21=4.50%
Finland U152=0.67%,  DF27=0.42%, L21=0.59%
Iceland:  U152=0 .0%,  DF27=0.0%, L21=3.50%

No surprise that L21 is higher in Norway and Iceland based on geography and history.  In Denmark, Norway, and Sweden there is more DF27 and L21 than U152, which would make sense if L21 and DF27 were generally located further north than U152 early on.

Germany:  U152=6.29%, DF27=3.49%, L21=2.38%
France:  U152=12.72%, DF27=15.65%, L21=9.50%
Poland:  U152=2.48%, DF27=1.24%, L21=0.63%
Italy:  U152=10.81%, DF27=2.77%, L21=1.12%
Austria:   U152=5.38%, DF27=1.14%, L21=1.14%
Spain:  U152=2.80%, DF27=22.75%, L21=3.97%
Portugal:  U152=2.45%, DF27=23.96%, L21=5.22%, Twice as much L21 as U152.

Countries with significant English Ancestry:
UK: U152=4.40%, DF27=6.52%, L21=19.30%
England: U152=5.50%, DF27=7.81%, L21=13.99%
USA:  U152=5.56%, DF27=7.58%, L21=26.36%. U152 & DF27 % about the same as England
Canada:  U152=5.55%, DF27=9.90%, L21=28.79%. Almost 2 time more DF27 than U152 (France has higher % of DF27 than U152)
Australia: U152=9.77%, DF27=3.76%, L21=35.43%.  Almost 3 times more U152 than DF27.  (U152 is 3 times more likely to be a convict than DF27?  )
South Africa: U152=8.26%, DF27=0.83%, L21=6.61%. Not sure why U152 would be so much higher than DF27, as DF27 his higher in both the Netherlands and Britain.

[Mitchell-Atkins]

Per the Alps to North Sea gradient, this post has some more detailed graphs

https://genarchivist.com/showthread.php?...00#pid4700

[Mitchell-Atkins]

I'm gonna throw in Luxembourg using the 62 FTDNA samples (8 U152) and the 38  Brabant DNA study samples (4 U152), giving us an even 100 of which 12 (12%) are U152

[brunolord15]

Mitchell , where probably R-U152 and R-L2 did born? was in italy? why globetrekker from ftdna shows R-U152 and R-L2 in the middle of italy?

https://imgur.com/a/CEPXvV5 , here globaltrekker shows R-L2 in the middle of italy and Phylogeograepher shows R-L2 in switzerland , so where it really did born?

[Mitchell-Atkins]

It could be near one of the ancient L2 samples I pmed you. But tomorrow an older one could appear somewhere else.

Based on ancient samples, somewhere between the Rhine, Danube,
and Czech Rep.

Eastern Bell Beaker sites overlaps a lot of ancient L2, but EBB is probably too young. 


If P312 to L2 followed close to the 83 years per SNP average then chronologically, L2 may have been in eastern France, Switzerland, or southern Germany, but it could have also been in the Lower Rhine area i.e. BENELUX, or northern Germany

[brunolord15]

It could be near one of the ancient L2 samples I pmed you.  But tomorrow an older one could appear somewhere else.

Based on ancient samples, somewhere between the Rhine, Danube,
and Czech Rep.

Eastern Bell Beaker sites overlaps a lot of ancient L2, but EBB is probably too young. 


If P312 to L2 followed close to the 83 years per SNP average then chronologically, L2 may have been in eastern France, Switzerland, or southern Germany, but it could have also been in the Lower Rhine area i.e. BENELUX, or northern Germany

P312 did born in ukraine?

[Mitchell-Atkins]

It could be near one of the ancient L2 samples I pmed you.  But tomorrow an older one could appear somewhere else.

Based on ancient samples, somewhere between the Rhine, Danube,
and Czech Rep.

Eastern Bell Beaker sites overlaps a lot of ancient L2, but EBB is probably too young. 


If P312 to L2 followed close to the 83 years per SNP average then chronologically, L2 may have been in eastern France, Switzerland, or southern Germany, but it could have also been in the Lower Rhine area i.e. BENELUX, or northern Germany

P312 did born in ukraine?

So far no P312 found before 2500s BC.  Chart above is based on observations made by U106 subject matter expert and astrophysicist Iain McDonald, said the following as it relates to L151 (parent of P312) and U106 (brother clade to P312). P312 SNP block has 2 SNPs so you need to include both P312 and CTS12684 to have the Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor (TMRCA) for all present descendants of P312.

R-L151
Likely MRCA date range: 3300-3000 BC.
Likely origin: Ukraine or other western former Soviet states if close to 3300 BC, or former Eastern Bloc countries (Poland/Czech R./Slovakia/Hungary/Romania/Bulgaria) if closer to 3000 BC.
Culture: earliest Corded Ware Culture (CWC)
Narrative evidence: The ancient DNA result PNL1 in Bohemia (before 2879 BC) sets the latest time that R-L151 can form, and likely sets the westernmost possible point of origin (since the CWC was an east-west migration and had only just reached Bohemia by 2900 BC). R-L151 represents the nexus of the R1b CWC expansion that took over Europe. The speed of this expansion can be traced via the number of sub-clades per haplogroup in the haplotree: initially (at R-L151) this was moderately fast, before becoming extremely fast. Hence, R-L151 is most likely to have formed and started splitting right at the start of the CWC expansion, give or take a few generations. The exact origins of this expansion are nebulous, but likely to be somewhere around the Ukraine. Different authors prefer routes north or south of the Carpathian Mountains. Based on current evidence, I would suggest a more northerly route.

R-U106
Likely MRCA data range: 3200-2900 BC.
Likely origin: Former Eastern Bloc countries: Czech R., Slovakia, Hungary, Poland (perhaps also Austria) if closer to 2950 BC; Romania, Moldova, western Ukraine if closer to 3200 BC.
Culture: early Corded Ware Culture (CWC)
Narrative evidence: As R-L151. R-U106 starts to get more rapidly into the population expansion. R-P312, R-S1194 and other basal R-L151 clades probably have a similar origin, though with less-constraining ancient DNA the date range can be slightly closer to the present and regions slightly further west allowed as the CWC migrated in that direction.

https://groups.io/g/R1b-U106/message/5759

Since P312 descends from L151 it may have originated in Ukraine or from a similar area as U106 above. I'm inclined to think if U106 started in Ukraine, P312 started in Poland, but that's just my opinion and based on no evidence.