Bulgaria thread

[vlrs]

Making this thread for discussions related to Bulgaria. Here is some usable information from the country's genetic results:


Y-DNA


808 Bulgarians per Karachanak et al:


[C - 0.5%]
C-M217 - 0.5% (East Asian)

[E-M35 - 21.6%]
E-V13 - 18.1 % (Europe, Thracian mostly, other Urnfield-related branches are expected as well)
E-M78 - 1.5% (North Africa but present in Europe, might even be Thracian as some Thracian samples I think were labelled as being E-M78 (pre-V13)

E-M34 - 1.9% (Near East / Semitic)

E-M35* - 0.1% (Africa but present in Europe)

[xM35 - 0.5%]
E-M81 - 0.1% (North Africa / Berbers)
E-M96 - 0.4 (Africa but present in Near East)


[G2a - 4.8%]
G-P15* - 0.2% (G2a Caucasus/Armenia/Iran. This is the main type of G in Ossetia, Cherkesia, and Kabardino-Balkaria)
G-P16 - 0.1% (G2a South and NW Caucasus / Armenia / Anatolia)
G-M547* - 0.1% (subclade introduced in 2012, likely Near East / Mediteranean / present in Neolithic Germany)
G-P303* - 0.7% (Caucasus / East Anatolia)
G-L497 - 1.9% (Central-Western Europe)
G-U1* - 0.5% (various Caucasus / Jewish / Palestinians / Armenian)
G-M527 - 0.1% (subclade of U1, present in all regions of Greek collonization)
G-M406 - 0.1% (Cappadocia, Mediterranean Anatolia and Central Anatolia)
G-page19 - 0.2% (subclade of G-M201, likely Anatolia, Armenia or western Iran)
G-L91 - 0.9% (Greece / Armenia but also in Neolithic Europe)

[H - 0.6%]
H-M82 - 0.6% (India > Gypsy)

[I1 - 4.7%]
I-M170* - 0.4% (predates I1/I2, WHG, Middle East, Caucasus, Europe, cannot ascribe ethnic affiliation)

I-M253 - 4.3% (I1 - all subclades appear to be Germanic per Yfull/FTDNA)

[I2a2/I2b - 1.7%]
I-M223 - 1.7% (Celto-Germanic)

[I2a - 20.2%]
I-M423 - 20.2% (all fall under I2a-Y3120 - Slavic)

[J1 - 3.4%]
J1-M267* - 1.4% (Iranian, Greek, Armenian, Anatolia)
J1-Page08 - 2% (P58 - Semitic / Messopotamian)

[J2a - 6.3%]
J2-M410* - 0.5% (CHG - ancient Greek / Minoan)
J2-Page55* - 1.7% (L26 - East Anatolia / Minoan)
J2-M47 - 0.1% (Anatolia, Georgia, Iran, Iraq)
J2-M67* - 1% (Caucasus but also some migrated to ancient Greece)
J2-M92 - 0.6% (ancient Greek)
J2-M530 - 2.4% (J2b - Anatolian Greek / East Med / Iran)

[J2b - 4.2%] - Western European branches might be present, but only 1 of 9 is western in Yfull.
J2-M12* - 0.4% (J2b - Steppe > Illyirians & Myc.Greece)
J2-M241 - 3.8% (J2b2 - Steppe > Illyirians & Myc.Greece)

[L - 0.2%]
L-M61 - 0.2% (India > Pakistan > Gypsy - but also spread in Armenia/Caucasus/Messopotamia)

[N - 0.5%]
N-M231 - 0.5% (Finno-Uguric / Turkic)

[Q - 0.4%]
Q-M25 - 0.1% (Q1a - Turkic)
Q-M346 - 0.1% (Turkic)
Q-M378 - 0.2% (Turkic)

[R1a - 17.5%]
R1-M198* - 10% (R1a - Slavic - 7.1% of that being Z280; Z92(Z280) - 1.9%; Z93 - 0.7% and this last one is Turkic or Iranic or both)
R1-M458 - 7.5% (R1a - Slavic)


[R1b - 10.7%]
R1-M269* - 1% (R1b - Yamnaya > Celto-Germanic?)
R1-L23* - 5.2% (R1b-Z2103 - Yamnaya > Illyirians & Armenians. Likely most are Illyrian-derived at least from the present info on Yfull/FTDNA)
R1-M412* - 0.2% (R1b parent of U106 - likely Germanic)
R1-L11* - 0.1% (R1b Yamnaya > Unetice > likely Celto-Germanic)
R1-U106 - 1.2% (R1b Germanic)
R1-S116 - 0.7% (R1b Yamnaya > proto-Celtic)
R1-U152 - 2.1% (R1b Celtic but can also be Roman Italiy-IA)

R1-M73 - 0.2% (R1b Asiatic branch - Turkic-Mongolic)

R2-M124 - 0.1% (India > Pakistan > Gypsy)

[T - 1.6%]
T-M70 - 1.6% (Chalcolithic, likely Greek or broadly East Med)



So the assumed aDNA contribution:

Slavic: 37.7% [North East Europe]
Thracian: 19.6% [BGR Iron Age]
Illyrian/Albanian/Medieval Vlach: 8.4% [Balkan Iron Age]
Anatolia/Caucasus (Greek-Roman Anatolia): 13.7% [Anatolia Iron Age]
Middle East/North Africa: 5.9% [Levantine]
Germanic: 6.7% [North Germanic Europe]
Celtic: 3% [Central-West Europe Celtic]
Turkic: 1.4% [Central Asia Turkic]
Iranic Steppe/Central Asia: 0.7% [Steppe Iranic]
India/Gypsy: 0.9% [India]


Vahaduo ancient calculator:


Target: Bulgarian
Distance: 0.7052% / 0.00705187
37.4 Slavic
23.4 Anatolia
19.2 Thracian-Kapitan-Andreevo
14.0 Illyrian (part of this should be Germanic but the calculator fails to calculate additional northern sources. Likely 8.4% Illyrian VS 5.6% Germanic IMO.
2.4 Konyr_Tobe_Late_Antiquity_o2(Sarmatian_profile)
2.2 Kazakhstan_Medieval_Turk_o(70%Sarmatian_30%Turkic)
1.4 Konyr_Tobe_Late_Antiquity_o1(Turkic_profile)


Basic components:

Target: Bulgarian
Distance: 3.0644% / 0.03064394
39.6 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
31.4 TUR_Barcin_N
22.4 TUR_Tepecik_Ciftlik_N
5.8 WHG
0.8 Han



Bulgarian basic components from Neolithic period to modern days:


Neolithic: 80% EEF, 10% WHG, 5% Yamna, 5% other

Chalcolithic: 86% EEF, 5% WHG, 7% Yamna

Early Bronze Age: 53% EEF, 7% WHG, 37% Yamna

Middle-Late Bronze age: 57% Yamna, 33% EEF, 5% CHG, 3% WHG

Early Iron Age: 77% EEF, 20% Yamna, 2% CHG

Iron Age: 74% EEF, 23% Yamna, 2% CHG

Late Iron Age: 73% EEF, 21% Yamna, 6% CHG

Late Antiquity: 75% EEF, 19% Yamna, 5% CHG

Bulgaria Medieval: 41% Yamna, 47% EEF, 4% WHG, 5% East Asia, 1% Levantine

Bulgaria Modern: 39% Yamna, 53% EEF, 5% WHG, 1% East Asia



Some conclusions based on all that:


- [Continuity] - From that information, it can be said that there was one population hiatus between the Chalcolithic period and the EBA when Yamnaya invaded. Then, there was a second hiatus when the MLBA population was replaced by the new Iron Age population (the Thracians). This was supported by archaeology long before any DNA studies came out. Continuity through all those pre-historical periods is either unrealistic or minimal. 

- [Thracian ethnic element] Based on Olade et al., the Iron Age population (the Thracians) survived as a component in the Medieval and modern Bulgarian population calculated to be - 19.3% - it is not known whether this component was acquired from a pristine Thracian source that survived the Slavic invasion or it was acquired from a Byzantine mixed population but I'd say truth is in the middle - city-Thracians were assimilated within the Byzantine population vs the village-Tracians especially in remote mountainous regions likely preserved their language/identity/ethnicity.

- [Slavic ethnic element] Slavic invasion in the Balkans is still the prime ethnic source for Bulgarians with 37% - based on aDNA and yDNA. Olade et al on the other hand, calculated the Slavic element to be 51.2%, but this is obviously the entire Northern element, which isn't exclusively Slavic as seen in the variety of Germanic, Illyirian, and Celtic haplogroups.

- [Bulgars & the Turkic populations] The Turkic element is quite low (even lower Iranic) - however, likely this wasn't the case in the Medieval period as seen in the samples from Samovodene (25-30% Central Asian), and Ryahovets (10% Central Asian). It can be assumed that for the last 1300 years, the Asiatic elements were largely assimilated.
However, autosomal DNA shows more Asiatic elements than the present Asiatic y-haplogroups. This can be explained by the fact that the Steppe populations were very mixed and arrived here in a hybrid Euro-Asiatic form; haplogroups carried here by Steppe people can also be various clades of G and J that can contribute additionally to a Steppe source. I would say that 5-7% Turkic (Iranic is somewhat expected to be part of this in some proportion) contribution is what I expect, and here we can find all the Pecheneg, Cuman, Bulgar and Alan influences. A possible Ottoman Turkish contribution should also be considered here.

- [Greek/Roman Anatolia as a new ethnic element] - Calculated by Olade et al to be the remarkable 23.8%, I think that this was the most overlooked and underrated ethnic contribution that came out only after the advent of the DNA studies. Overall, it was well known that Anatolia was the main source of population during the Roman/Byzantine periods, and cities like Serdika (Sofia) and Phillipopoplis (Plovdiv) were almost completely Anatolian. Most historians stated that this Anatolian population was Greek-speaking south of the Balkan range and Latin-speaking north of that range. Per historians, this population was the linguistic basis of Medieval Vlachs, who sometimes are considered as an unofficial ethnic element (also in other parts of the Balkans as well). This by far, is the biggest surprise that came out of DNA studies and deserves a lot of attention because this population survived and influenced various other modern peoples. Need to point here that the Levantine elements seen in the haplogroups by rule should also be on the same train of Roman colonization. 

- [Germanic element] Results also show that there is a noticeable Germanic contribution in Bulgaria. Whether this is Eastern Germanic (Gothic) or an accumulation from various sources remains unclear. Same situation can be seen in Serbia/Bosnia, so it wouldn't be surprising if Saxon miners are also suspects here. 

- [Celtic minor element] This one is small and as above, not known whether is remnant from the 279 BC Celtic invasion in the Balkans or arrived in Roman times. I put my bet on the second tho. 

- [Illyrian-related element] This might actually be from the assimilation in the Medieval period of Vlachs and Albanians and have nothing to do with a pristine Illyrian population. So I've heard that most of those haplogroups (R-Z2103 / J2b2 are primarily directed towards Southwest Bulgaria and wider historical Macedonia. 



Discussion, alternative opinions, and criticism are welcomed.

[Fartcoin]

What's the percentage of Muslim population in Bulgaria? I heard somewhere that at least 10% of the population are Turks/Turkic speakers..

[RCO]

Basal J1 are Iranian, Greek, Armenian, Anatolian or Caucasian, not Semitic.

[vlrs]

What's the percentage of Muslim population in Bulgaria? I heard somewhere that at least 10% of the population are Turks/Turkic speakers..

Turkish people are 500,000 (8%). There are around 200,000 Bulgarian Muslims.

[vlrs]

Basal J1 are Iranian, Greek, Armenian, Anatolian or Caucasian, not Semitic.

Thanks for the correction, I edited that.

[okshtunas]

Making this thread for discussions related to Bulgaria. Here is some usable information from the country's genetic results:


Y-DNA


808 Bulgarians per Karachanak et al:


[C - 0.5%]
C-M217 - 0.5% (East Asian)

[E-M35 - 21.6%]
E-V13 - 18.1 % (Europe, Thracian mostly, other Urnfield-related branches are expected as well)
E-M78 - 1.5% (North Africa but present in Europe, might even be Thracian as some Thracian samples I think were labelled as being E-M78 (pre-V13)

E-M34 - 1.9% (Near East / Semitic)

E-M35* - 0.1% (Africa but present in Europe)

[xM35 - 0.5%]
E-M81 - 0.1% (North Africa / Berbers)
E-M96 - 0.4 (Africa but present in Near East)


[G2a - 4.8%]
G-P15* - 0.2% (G2a Caucasus/Armenia/Iran. This is the main type of G in Ossetia, Cherkesia, and Kabardino-Balkaria)
G-P16 - 0.1% (G2a South and NW Caucasus / Armenia / Anatolia)
G-M547* - 0.1% (subclade introduced in 2012, likely Near East / Mediteranean / present in Neolithic Germany)
G-P303* - 0.7% (Caucasus / East Anatolia)
G-L497 - 1.9% (Central-Western Europe)
G-U1* - 0.5% (various Caucasus / Jewish / Palestinians / Armenian)
G-M527 - 0.1% (subclade of U1, present in all regions of Greek collonization)
G-M406 - 0.1% (Cappadocia, Mediterranean Anatolia and Central Anatolia)
G-page19 - 0.2% (subclade of G-M201, likely Anatolia, Armenia or western Iran)
G-L91 - 0.9% (Greece / Armenia but also in Neolithic Europe)

[H - 0.6%]
H-M82 - 0.6% (India > Gypsy)

[I1 - 4.7%]
I-M170* - 0.4% (predates I1/I2, WHG, Middle East, Caucasus, Europe, cannot ascribe ethnic affiliation)

I-M253 - 4.3% (I1 - all subclades appear to be Germanic per Yfull/FTDNA)

[I2a2/I2b - 1.7%]
I-M223 - 1.7% (Celto-Germanic)

[I2a - 20.2%]
I-M423 - 20.2% (all fall under I2a-Y3120 - Slavic)

[J1 - 3.4%]
J1-M267* - 1.4% (Iranian, Greek, Armenian, Anatolia)
J1-Page08 - 2% (P58 - Semitic / Messopotamian)

[J2a - 6.3%]
J2-M410* - 0.5% (CHG - ancient Greek / Minoan)
J2-Page55* - 1.7% (L26 - East Anatolia / Minoan)
J2-M47 - 0.1% (Anatolia, Georgia, Iran, Iraq)
J2-M67* - 1% (Caucasus but also some migrated to ancient Greece)
J2-M92 - 0.6% (ancient Greek)
J2-M530 - 2.4% (J2b - Anatolian Greek / East Med / Iran)

[J2b - 4.2%] - Western European branches might be present, but only 1 of 9 is western in Yfull.
J2-M12* - 0.4% (J2b - Steppe > Illyirians & Myc.Greece)
J2-M241 - 3.8% (J2b2 - Steppe > Illyirians & Myc.Greece)

[L - 0.2%]
L-M61 - 0.2% (India > Pakistan > Gypsy - but also spread in Armenia/Caucasus/Messopotamia)

[N - 0.5%]
N-M231 - 0.5% (Finno-Uguric / Turkic)

[Q - 0.4%]
Q-M25 - 0.1% (Q1a - Turkic)
Q-M346 - 0.1% (Turkic)
Q-M378 - 0.2% (Turkic)

[R1a - 17.5%]
R1-M198* - 10% (R1a - Slavic - 7.1% of that being Z280; Z92(Z280) - 1.9%; Z93 - 0.7% and this last one is Turkic or Iranic or both)
R1-M458 - 7.5% (R1a - Slavic)


[R1b - 10.7%]
R1-M269* - 1% (R1b - Yamnaya > Celto-Germanic?)
R1-L23* - 5.2% (R1b-Z2103 - Yamnaya > Illyirians & Armenians. Likely most are Illyrian-derived at least from the present info on Yfull/FTDNA)
R1-M412* - 0.2% (R1b parent of U106 - likely Germanic)
R1-L11* - 0.1% (R1b Yamnaya > Unetice > likely Celto-Germanic)
R1-U106 - 1.2% (R1b Germanic)
R1-S116 - 0.7% (R1b Yamnaya > proto-Celtic)
R1-U152 - 2.1% (R1b Celtic but can also be Roman Italiy-IA)

R1-M73 - 0.2% (R1b Asiatic branch - Turkic-Mongolic)

R2-M124 - 0.1% (India > Pakistan > Gypsy)

[T - 1.6%]
T-M70 - 1.6% (Chalcolithic, likely Greek or broadly East Med)



So the assumed aDNA contribution:

Slavic: 37.7% [North East Europe]
Thracian: 19.6% [BGR Iron Age]
Illyrian/Albanian/Medieval Vlach: 8.4% [Balkan Iron Age]
Anatolia/Caucasus (Greek-Roman Anatolia): 13.7% [Anatolia Iron Age]
Middle East/North Africa: 5.9% [Levantine]
Germanic: 6.7% [North Germanic Europe]
Celtic: 3% [Central-West Europe Celtic]
Turkic: 1.4% [Central Asia Turkic]
Iranic Steppe/Central Asia: 0.7% [Steppe Iranic]
India/Gypsy: 0.9% [India]


Vahaduo ancient calculator:


Target: Bulgarian
Distance: 0.7052% / 0.00705187
37.4 Slavic
23.4 Anatolia
19.2 Thracian-Kapitan-Andreevo
14.0 Illyrian (part of this should be Germanic but the calculator fails to calculate additional northern sources. Likely 8.4% Illyrian VS 5.6% Germanic IMO.
2.4 Konyr_Tobe_Late_Antiquity_o2(Sarmatian_profile)
2.2 Kazakhstan_Medieval_Turk_o(70%Sarmatian_30%Turkic)
1.4 Konyr_Tobe_Late_Antiquity_o1(Turkic_profile)


Basic components:

Target: Bulgarian
Distance: 3.0644% / 0.03064394
39.6 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
31.4 TUR_Barcin_N
22.4 TUR_Tepecik_Ciftlik_N
5.8 WHG
0.8 Han



Bulgarian basic components from Neolithic period to modern days:


Neolithic: 80% EEF, 10% WHG, 5% Yamna, 5% other

Chalcolithic: 86% EEF, 5% WHG, 7% Yamna

Early Bronze Age: 53% EEF, 7% WHG, 37% Yamna

Middle-Late Bronze age: 57% Yamna, 33% EEF, 5% CHG, 3% WHG

Early Iron Age: 77% EEF, 20% Yamna, 2% CHG

Iron Age: 74% EEF, 23% Yamna, 2% CHG

Late Iron Age: 73% EEF, 21% Yamna, 6% CHG

Late Antiquity: 75% EEF, 19% Yamna, 5% CHG

Bulgaria Medieval: 41% Yamna, 47% EEF, 4% WHG, 5% East Asia, 1% Levantine

Bulgaria Modern: 39% Yamna, 53% EEF, 5% WHG, 1% East Asia



Some conclusions based on all that:


- [Continuity] - From that information, it can be said that there was one population hiatus between the Chalcolithic period and the EBA when Yamnaya invaded. Then, there was a second hiatus when the MLBA population was replaced by the new Iron Age population (the Thracians). This was supported by archaeology long before any DNA studies came out. Continuity through all those pre-historical periods is either unrealistic or minimal. 

- [Thracian ethnic element] Based on Olade et al., the Iron Age population (the Thracians) survived as a component in the Medieval and modern Bulgarian population calculated to be - 19.3% - it is not known whether this component was acquired from a pristine Thracian source that survived the Slavic invasion or it was acquired from a Byzantine mixed population but I'd say truth is in the middle - city-Thracians were assimilated within the Byzantine population vs the village-Tracians especially in remote mountainous regions likely preserved their language/identity/ethnicity.

- [Slavic ethnic element] Slavic invasion in the Balkans is still the prime ethnic source for Bulgarians with 37% - based on aDNA and yDNA. Olade et al on the other hand, calculated the Slavic element to be 51.2%, but this is obviously the entire Northern element, which isn't exclusively Slavic as seen in the variety of Germanic, Illyirian, and Celtic haplogroups.

- [Bulgars & the Turkic populations] The Turkic element is quite low (even lower Iranic) - however, likely this wasn't the case in the Medieval period as seen in the samples from Samovodene (25-30% Central Asian), and Ryahovets (10% Central Asian). It can be assumed that for the last 1300 years, the Asiatic elements were largely assimilated.
However, autosomal DNA shows more Asiatic elements than the present Asiatic y-haplogroups. This can be explained by the fact that the Steppe populations were very mixed and arrived here in a hybrid Euro-Asiatic form; haplogroups carried here by Steppe people can also be various clades of G and J that can contribute additionally to a Steppe source. I would say that 5-7% Turkic (Iranic is somewhat expected to be part of this in some proportion) contribution is what I expect, and here we can find all the Pecheneg, Cuman, Bulgar and Alan influences. A possible Ottoman Turkish contribution should also be considered here.

- [Greek/Roman Anatolia as a new ethnic element] - Calculated by Olade et al to be the remarkable 23.8%, I think that this was the most overlooked and underrated ethnic contribution that came out only after the advent of the DNA studies. Overall, it was well known that Anatolia was the main source of population during the Roman/Byzantine periods, and cities like Serdika (Sofia) and Phillipopoplis (Plovdiv) were almost completely Anatolian. Most historians stated that this Anatolian population was Greek-speaking south of the Balkan range and Latin-speaking north of that range. Per historians, this population was the linguistic basis of Medieval Vlachs, who sometimes are considered as an unofficial ethnic element (also in other parts of the Balkans as well). This by far, is the biggest surprise that came out of DNA studies and deserves a lot of attention because this population survived and influenced various other modern peoples. Need to point here that the Levantine elements seen in the haplogroups by rule should also be on the same train of Roman colonization. 

- [Germanic element] Results also show that there is a noticeable Germanic contribution in Bulgaria. Whether this is Eastern Germanic (Gothic) or an accumulation from various sources remains unclear. Same situation can be seen in Serbia/Bosnia, so it wouldn't be surprising if Saxon miners are also suspects here. 

- [Celtic minor element] This one is small and as above, not known whether is remnant from the 279 BC Celtic invasion in the Balkans or arrived in Roman times. I put my bet on the second tho. 

- [Illyrian-related element] This might actually be from the assimilation in the Medieval period of Vlachs and Albanians and have nothing to do with a pristine Illyrian population. So I've heard that most of those haplogroups (R-Z2103 / J2b2 are primarily directed towards Southwest Bulgaria and wider historical Macedonia. 



Discussion, alternative opinions, and criticism are welcomed.

Are there any major/private project efforts to test Bulgarians? Any forthcoming projects?

It seems only the Albanian and Serbian DNA projects have tested more frequently. Would love to see more project efforts with Bulgaria and Macedonia. Including Romania. 

I'm particularly interested in their R-M458 sequencing.

[Riverman]

- [Continuity] - From that information, it can be said that there was one population hiatus between the Chalcolithic period and the EBA when Yamnaya invaded. Then, there was a second hiatus when the MLBA population was replaced by the new Iron Age population (the Thracians). This was supported by archaeology long before any DNA studies came out. Continuity through all those pre-historical periods is either unrealistic or minimal. 

- [Thracian ethnic element] Based on Olade et al., the Iron Age population (the Thracians) survived as a component in the Medieval and modern Bulgarian population calculated to be - 19.3% - it is not known whether this component was acquired from a pristine Thracian source that survived the Slavic invasion or it was acquired from a Byzantine mixed population but I'd say truth is in the middle - city-Thracians were assimilated within the Byzantine population vs the village-Tracians especially in remote mountainous regions likely preserved their language/identity/ethnicity.

Continuity of the South Thracians is extremely unlikely to have started before the MBA-LBA, because of the hiatus and very different regional population elements. The main question is therefore whether Thracians in Southern Bulgaria emerged from LBA Zimnicea-Plovdiv-Cerkovna (from the Carpatho-Danubian cremation block) or from Gáva-related Channelled Ware (also from the Carpatho-Danubian cremation block), or both.

This is something which goes on later too, because not all of Bulgaria was actually South Thracian, with the North/North East being both early and even more so later occupied by people which belonged to the Getae and Dacians.

The latter is also important if looking at the surviving branches of E-V13 in Bulgaria, of which only a fraction is actually and strictly speaking, going by the current evidence, South Thracian. THerefore a large fraction of the modern E-V13 is probably not the result of all too much regional continuity from the South Thracians, but rather the expansion of later groups with E-V13 like the Dacians, Daco-Romans and Vlachs in particular.
There was a massive resettlement of Daco-Romans and Dacians at the end of the Roman Empire, affected especially the Danubian provinces. And we also know how big of an impact the Vlach people had on Bulgaria, further spreading lineages which might not have been present in the Thracian Iron Age.

This can be proven by looking at the TMRCA of many Bulgarian branches, which can be connected to Vlach, Slavic and other Central European branches, while don't appearing in the ancient DNA record of the region.

But even if going back in time to the Iron Age, again, the Danubian region and the North of Bulgaria was not actually (South) Thracian but rather Geto-Dacian. This map nicely shows that already before the Roman era, much of Northern Bulgaria had a strong Dacian/Geto-Dacian influence:



And this even increased after the Romans defeated the Thracians, because most of the new settlers, after the following catastrophies, came from the North, especially if talking about E-V13 lineages.
E-L618, the upstream branch of E-V13, seems to have been particularly common in Greeks in my opinion, by the way. With common I mean present at all, because no E-L618 branch shows a typical Daco-Thracian founder event, but some were found in Greeks.

[vlrs]

Are there any major/private project efforts to test Bulgarians? Any forthcoming projects?

It seems only the Albanian and Serbian DNA projects have tested more frequently. Would love to see more project efforts with Bulgaria and Macedonia. Including Romania. 

I'm particularly interested in their R-M458 sequencing.

The only public project is the FTDNA Bulgarian project - https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/bul...na-results

There is an ongoing project right now to collect the genome of the population, and the testing is free but I do not know when any results will be published.

There is an upcoming study in collaboration with Reich's lab with 1500 samples ranging from the Bronze Age to the Medieval and Early Modernity. From what I know, it is half-done.

I'd be also happy to see more from Macedonia and Romania and also from Greece which is very important as well. The Biomuse project is still nowhere to be seen.

[Square]

About your vahaduo calc, what are the ancient g25 samples used for slavic, thracian , anatolian and illyrian ?

[vlrs]

- [Continuity] - From that information, it can be said that there was one population hiatus between the Chalcolithic period and the EBA when Yamnaya invaded. Then, there was a second hiatus when the MLBA population was replaced by the new Iron Age population (the Thracians). This was supported by archaeology long before any DNA studies came out. Continuity through all those pre-historical periods is either unrealistic or minimal. 

- [Thracian ethnic element] Based on Olade et al., the Iron Age population (the Thracians) survived as a component in the Medieval and modern Bulgarian population calculated to be - 19.3% - it is not known whether this component was acquired from a pristine Thracian source that survived the Slavic invasion or it was acquired from a Byzantine mixed population but I'd say truth is in the middle - city-Thracians were assimilated within the Byzantine population vs the village-Tracians especially in remote mountainous regions likely preserved their language/identity/ethnicity.

Continuity of the South Thracians is extremely unlikely to have started before the MBA-LBA, because of the hiatus and very different regional population elements. The main question is therefore whether Thracians in Southern Bulgaria emerged from LBA Zimnicea-Plovdiv-Cerkovna (from the Carpatho-Danubian cremation block) or from Gáva-related Channelled Ware (also from the Carpatho-Danubian cremation block), or both.

This is something which goes on later too, because not all of Bulgaria was actually South Thracian, with the North/North East being both early and even more so later occupied by people which belonged to the Getae and Dacians.

The latter is also important if looking at the surviving branches of E-V13 in Bulgaria, of which only a fraction is actually and strictly speaking, going by the current evidence, South Thracian. THerefore a large fraction of the modern E-V13 is probably not the result of all too much regional continuity from the South Thracians, but rather the expansion of later groups with E-V13 like the Dacians, Daco-Romans and Vlachs in particular.
There was a massive resettlement of Daco-Romans and Dacians at the end of the Roman Empire, affected especially the Danubian provinces. And we also know how big of an impact the Vlach people had on Bulgaria, further spreading lineages which might not have been present in the Thracian Iron Age.

This can be proven by looking at the TMRCA of many Bulgarian branches, which can be connected to Vlach, Slavic and other Central European branches, while don't appearing in the ancient DNA record of the region.

But even if going back in time to the Iron Age, again, the Danubian region and the North of Bulgaria was not actually (South) Thracian but rather Geto-Dacian. This map nicely shows that already before the Roman era, much of Northern Bulgaria had a strong Dacian/Geto-Dacian influence:

 this even increased after the Romans defeated the Thracians, because most of the new settlers, after the following catastrophies, came from the North, especially if talking about E-V13 lineages.
E-L618, the upstream branch of E-V13, seems to have been particularly common in Greeks in my opinion, by the way. With common I mean present at all, because no E-L618 branch shows a typical Daco-Thracian founder event, but some were found in Greeks.

From your post I have some remarks and questions:

1. I'd say that I do not expect any Thracians in the MLBA (not south of the Danube at least), because I think they did not existed at that point in modern Bulgaria. Whatever was the source population for them, I think we should really look for Thracians not before 1300 BC, which seems to go well with the Channelled Ware theory you mention. For south of the Danube, I posted already the MLBA population data, which suggests a profile that is very different compared to the Thracian genome, and I believe the pre-Thracian population south of the Danube was also Indo-European but very different in terms of genetic profile. My expectation is that unknown IE tribe/s lived there, and we will never know what they were in terms of dialect and tribal identity.

2. I think we did discussed long ago the EEF-rich IA Thracian profile and you suggested that the Northern Gava/Channelled source population mixed with EEF-rich population, which, if I remember, you said were Myceneans? Or something similar? Not sure I remember correctly.

3. The impact of "Dacians, Daco-Romans and Vlachs" we discussed more recently, and I agree that after the fall of Roman Dacia indeed, the population from that province was de-facto transplanted in Moesia, thus, E-V13 was added en-mass.  From Yfull, I noticed some clades are dated around 1200 years ago, which is just 100 years after the creation of Bulgaria, and that makes a lot of sense. But there are various others that do not match that. Which clades of E-V13 you refer to as North and South Thracian, btw? And if you are correct about that, it also adds a lot of credibility to the Bulgarian historiography, which posits that the Thracians south of the Danube were, for the most part, exterminated and marginalized by the Slavic invasion. However, the 19% Autosomal admixture and the strong E-V13 presence point to the re-introduction of Thracian element as we said - from a Dacian source. Which seems completely fine to me. 

4. Your remark about Moesia being Dacian/Getae influenced is correct; it is widely accepted in current historiography in Bulgaria (the so-called Thracology school).

[vlrs]

About your vahaduo calc,  what are the ancient g25 samples used for slavic, thracian , anatolian and illyrian ?

Slavic is Avar_Szolad_2; Thracian is Kapitan_Andreevo samples; Illyrian is Croatia/Albania/Montenegro_IA; for Anatolia, I used various samples from the Roman Frontier paper that are from the Balkans themselves but are more or less identical to the many Anatolian samples we had from the Southern Arc paper.

[okshtunas]

Are there any major/private project efforts to test Bulgarians? Any forthcoming projects?

It seems only the Albanian and Serbian DNA projects have tested more frequently. Would love to see more project efforts with Bulgaria and Macedonia. Including Romania. 

I'm particularly interested in their R-M458 sequencing.

The only public project is the FTDNA Bulgarian project - https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/bul...na-results

There is an ongoing project right now to collect the genome of the population, and the testing is free but I do not know when any results will be published.

There is an upcoming study in collaboration with Reich's lab with 1500 samples ranging from the Bronze Age to the Medieval and Early Modernity. From what I know, it is half-done.

I'd be also happy to see more from Macedonia and Romania and also from Greece which is very important as well. The Biomuse project is still nowhere to be seen.

Thanks for sharing. I may have gone through the results some time back. Sadly I couldn't find any R-L1029 with my rare founder effect.

There are 2 Bulgarians in Burgas, and 1 from Razgrad in a study that may be positive for the upstream branch of my line. Sadly the STRs were too limited, and they also exhibit some similarity for A11460, which they could actually be instead.

Oh you mean in Bulgaria there is a ongoing project? that would be really awesome to see. Can you provide a link to where this ongoing project and the study you mention is discussed?

That's alot of samples and would be fantastic to see once it's released. I imagine it's only covering Bulgaria, or is that Balkan-wide?

As for the Biomuse project, I remember they mentioned like 50 samples. I don't know if that's changed. would be great to see.

[Riverman]

From your post I have some remarks and questions:

1. I'd say that I do not expect any Thracians in the MLBA (not south of the Danube at least), because I think they did not existed at that point in modern Bulgaria. Whatever was the source population for them, I think we should really look for Thracians not before 1300 BC, which seems to go well with the Channelled Ware theory you mention. For south of the Danube, I posted already the MLBA population data, which suggests a profile that is very different compared to the Thracian genome, and I believe the pre-Thracian population south of the Danube was also Indo-European but very different in terms of genetic profile. My expectation is that unknown IE tribe/s lived there, and we will never know what they were in terms of dialect and tribal identity.

Keep in mind that both the earlier LBA and the later LBA-EIA expansion group came from the same source, both did cremate, and they were very closely related. E.g., both the ultimate source groups of Zimnicea-Plovdiv-Cerkovna and Gáva-related Channelled Ware came from the Carpatho-Danubian cremation block, with influences from Nyirseg and Eastern Otomani-Wietenberg. The samples from Bulgaria we got so far, from the earlier periods, are all from different kinds of people, like those from Sabatinovka derived early Noua-Coslogeni - which later mixed with people related to the Carpatho-Danubian cremation block among others.

2. I think we did discussed long ago the EEF-rich IA Thracian profile and you suggested that the Northern Gava/Channelled source population mixed with EEF-rich population, which, if I remember, you said were Myceneans? Or something similar? Not sure I remember correctly

First off, it is clear by now that the core and source population of Thracians to the North of the Danube was EEF-rich itself. The question is just the exact ratio of EEF : steppe : HG ancestry. But they were high in EEF at least as well. But additional admixture in the South might have made the South Thracians all the more EEF-rich even compared to their Northern cousins. The early Channelled Ware-related expansion, which might have been taken up by local Thracian/Thracian-related people of Zimnicea-Plovdiv-Cerkovna in the East Rhodopes in particular, did also migrate to Greece and Anatolia, where I expect some backflow to have taken place as well.

3. The impact of "Dacians, Daco-Romans and Vlachs" we discussed more recently, and I agree that after the fall of Roman Dacia indeed, the population from that province was de-facto transplanted in Moesia, thus, E-V13 was added en-mass.  From Yfull, I noticed some clades are dated around 1200 years ago, which is just 100 years after the creation of Bulgaria, and that makes a lot of sense. But there are various others that do not match that. Which clades of E-V13 you refer to as North and South Thracian, btw? And if you are correct about that, it also adds a lot of credibility to the Bulgarian historiography, which posits that the Thracians south of the Danube were, for the most part, exterminated and marginalized by the Slavic invasion. However, the 19% Autosomal admixture and the strong E-V13 presence point to the re-introduction of Thracian element as we said - from a Dacian source. Which seems completely fine to me. 

I think a large factor for the spread of Medieval E-V13/Daco-Roman ancestry were definitely the Vlachs. You see both North and South of the Danube, in strongly Vlach dominated areas of Romania, Bulgaria and Serbia, E-V13 being very high.

As for Northern vs. Southern branches, I made various posts about it, but basically you could say that most (not necessarily) of E-Z5018 is Northern, E-Z5017 is central and most (again not necessarily all) branches of e.g. E-BY5022 are South Thracian.
So far, we have found E-Z5017 indeed especially in central groups most likely associated with e.g. Basarabi, the Triballi and Southern Thracians. Well-represented along the more Western protion of the Lower Danube to the Danube-Tisza interfluve and giving rise to some major Vlach branches under E-Z5017 -> E-CTS9320. Note that the Himera mercenaries with E-Z5017 were notably more Northern/Central to Northern Balkan autosomally as well. 
E-BY5022 having a decisively more Southern distribution in most branches and was found in South Thracian Iron Age samples of Kapitan Andreevo.

Therefore two parts of my hypothesis about the big scheme of the E-V13 geographical pattern being by and large proven, namely for E-Z5017 and E-BY5022. Which is still missing however is the evidence for E-Z5018 being indeed the main Northern/Dacian haplogroup branch, which should pop up in groups like e.g. Gáva-Holigrady, Vekerzug, Kustanovice and even if not in one of those, definitely in the historical Dacian people North of the Danube, in areas like Transylvania and Transcarpathia in particular.
Since these are the most strict people of all Daco-Thracians if its about cremation, and the samples from those areas which are available, from a mixed cultural context mostly from the Bronze Age and Scythian to Celtic Iron Age, are still unpublished, it remains to be proven with certainty.

[vlrs]

Are there any major/private project efforts to test Bulgarians? Any forthcoming projects?

It seems only the Albanian and Serbian DNA projects have tested more frequently. Would love to see more project efforts with Bulgaria and Macedonia. Including Romania. 

I'm particularly interested in their R-M458 sequencing.

The only public project is the FTDNA Bulgarian project - https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/bul...na-results

There is an ongoing project right now to collect the genome of the population, and the testing is free but I do not know when any results will be published.

There is an upcoming study in collaboration with Reich's lab with 1500 samples ranging from the Bronze Age to the Medieval and Early Modernity. From what I know, it is half-done.

I'd be also happy to see more from Macedonia and Romania and also from Greece which is very important as well. The Biomuse project is still nowhere to be seen.

Thanks for sharing. I may have gone through the results some time back. Sadly I couldn't find any R-L1029 with my rare founder effect.

There are 2 Bulgarians in Burgas, and 1 from Razgrad in a study that may be positive for the upstream branch of my line. Sadly the STRs were too limited, and they also exhibit some similarity for A11460, which they could actually be instead.

Oh you mean in Bulgaria there is a ongoing project? that would be really awesome to see. Can you provide a link to where this ongoing project and the study you mention is discussed?

That's alot of samples and would be fantastic to see once it's released. I imagine it's only covering Bulgaria, or is that Balkan-wide?

As for the Biomuse project, I remember they mentioned like 50 samples. I don't know if that's changed. would be great to see.

- So this one is an EU effort to collect 1,000,000 genomes, and Bulgaria participates with 2,000. They claim results will be ready by the end of the year:

https://nucbtr.mu-sofia.bg/news/genomat-na-balgaria

- I have no info about R-L1029 in Bulgarians, but the haplogroups seem like no mystery in its origin, which is good.

- I do not know much about the future paper with the 1500 samples. It is a separate study for Bulgaria but will be released in relation to another wider study, so there are chances it might be something more Balkan-inclusive. Only 1 guy who's working on it spoiled some interesting information. He said that the 23% Anatolian autosomal admixture in Bulgaria accumulated very suddenly after 1000 AD and claimed this happened during the 180 years when Byzantium managed to dismantle and occupy the First Bulgarian Empire. He said that before 1000 AD, there were no J haplogroups in any previous ages, which I find hard to believe, especially after the Imperial Roman period. There was also interesting info on the Paulician heretic genomes, which appear to be very exotic. Some info on the Goths that from 30 samples only very few are Germanic, and the rest are Hunno-Sarmatian in their genetic profile, with those who are Germanic being mostly I1. They sampled some Sarmatians from the 4th century and some Bulgars who are said to be around 5% Asiatic with the rest being similar to modern Bulgarians, which might be an oversimplified statement, but we will see. For the Thracians, he said no surprises after what we've already seen so far, so more E-V13 is expected. He also added that E-V13 is not tied exclusively to the Thracians but was present in some other tribal units, but he did not say which exactly. And I do not see many options in the pre-Slavic Balkans.

[okshtunas]

The only public project is the FTDNA Bulgarian project - https://www.familytreedna.com/groups/bul...na-results

There is an ongoing project right now to collect the genome of the population, and the testing is free but I do not know when any results will be published.

There is an upcoming study in collaboration with Reich's lab with 1500 samples ranging from the Bronze Age to the Medieval and Early Modernity. From what I know, it is half-done.

I'd be also happy to see more from Macedonia and Romania and also from Greece which is very important as well. The Biomuse project is still nowhere to be seen.

Thanks for sharing. I may have gone through the results some time back. Sadly I couldn't find any R-L1029 with my rare founder effect.

There are 2 Bulgarians in Burgas, and 1 from Razgrad in a study that may be positive for the upstream branch of my line. Sadly the STRs were too limited, and they also exhibit some similarity for A11460, which they could actually be instead.

Oh you mean in Bulgaria there is a ongoing project? that would be really awesome to see. Can you provide a link to where this ongoing project and the study you mention is discussed?

That's alot of samples and would be fantastic to see once it's released. I imagine it's only covering Bulgaria, or is that Balkan-wide?

As for the Biomuse project, I remember they mentioned like 50 samples. I don't know if that's changed. would be great to see.

- So this one is an EU effort to collect 1,000,000 genomes, and Bulgaria participates with 2,000. They claim results will be ready by the end of the year:

https://nucbtr.mu-sofia.bg/news/genomat-na-balgaria

- I have no info about R-L1029 in Bulgarians, but the haplogroups seem like no mystery in its origin, which is good.

- I do not know much about the future paper with the 1500 samples. It is a separate study for Bulgaria but will be released in relation to another wider study, so there are chances it might be something more Balkan-inclusive. Only 1 guy who's working on it spoiled some interesting information. He said that the 23% Anatolian autosomal admixture in Bulgaria accumulated very suddenly after 1000 AD and claimed this happened during the 180 years when Byzantium managed to dismantle and occupy the First Bulgarian Empire. He said that before 1000 AD, there were no J haplogroups in any previous ages, which I find hard to believe, especially after the Imperial Roman period. There was also interesting info on the Paulician heretic genomes, which appear to be very exotic. Some info on the Goths that from 30 samples only very few are Germanic, and the rest are Hunno-Sarmatian in their genetic profile, with those who are Germanic being mostly I1. They sampled some Sarmatians from the 4th century and some Bulgars who are said to be around 5% Asiatic with the rest being similar to modern Bulgarians, which might be an oversimplified statement, but we will see. For the Thracians, he said no surprises after what we've already seen so far, so more E-V13 is expected. He also added that E-V13 is not tied exclusively to the Thracians but was present in some other tribal units, but he did not say which exactly. And I do not see many options in the pre-Slavic Balkans.

Oh wow! 1 million. I imagine many countries are participating. Hope all the Balkan countries are. And it's WGS which is great. 
 
So i assume the source project is biobanking BBMRI-ERIC?

I want to find the other initiatives for the other countries. I assume that's where I start the search? 

I'm really looking forward to it. For R-M458/R-L1029, it's interesting cause we have those 28 Pannonian Avars which were very Southern, more like Bulgarians, Romanians, Macedonians, but also possessed some minor North Caucasus like input and very little but present Asian. Some were wholly Serbo-Croatian like and others Hungari-German like. 

Given your comments about the Bulgars being more or less like Bulgarians, I suspect then R-M458 in some of them won't be out of the realm of possibility given the Pannonian Avar samples. 

We also have 3 Hungarian Sarmatians (mostly Hallstatt with Sarmatian input) from Late Antiquity that were R-M458/L1029.  And 2 Iron Age R-M458 Scythians with some North Caucasian like input. 

So I suspect it won't be so strange that the Bulgars absorbed some R-M458/L1029 as well. From a cultural standpoint it would more or less have most arriving with Slavs and secondary, with Pannonian Avars/Bulgars that will probably be mostly Europid.